No Sleep 'Till November

So it was yet another day in the office and I'm staring down the barrel of another few hours, if not more, of mind-numbing data entry. Mind you, we have done this all day. Neeeeeat.

But it's almost done and I know that we'll practically jump for joy when it's over. We've been doing it since Monday and it's finally almost there...I can taste it.

The last five or six days of blogs have all been from the office. Hey, I don't get free internet at the hotel, gotta do it when I can - and since I've spent the majority of my day and evening here - and someone is sitting at my desk for a moment, I thought I'd take the time to blog now.

I wish I could give you a fascinating morsel from my day, some minutae of campaign life from today that is terribly interesting. The truth, however, is that there is nothing we've done today that is remotely illuminating - with the notable exception of Megan's good deed for the day, which was filling the ice tray in the office refrigerator. Mother Teresa, indeed.

However, I have endured questions from the few folks I speak to from home (and by this, I mostly mean my mother and a few other surly folk - and I get it every time I talk to them) - do you think he's going to win? What about the polls? What about the "bounce"?

All I have to do is say pbbbbbbbbbffffffffttttttt.

That would be the Bronx cheer (the raspberry for those of you not from NY).

Lemme get out my soap box. Indulge me, I haven't done this since I stopped on my other blog and began this one. Oh look, I've been standing on it since the 2000 election.

All of us who are waiting with baited breath for Bush to go packing home have allowed ourselves to be swayed by the polls and many times, we give up too easily. But the polls do not take into account many things. I thank Michael Moore for pointing many of these out:

1. Which poll do you believe? Statistically, I have been taught that polls, while a good measure of general sentiment, are not entirely scientific. Especially when you consider the size of the sample and the response percentage. Like the Quinnipiac poll saying that Bush was pulling major ground in New York City, for example. Are you kidding me, Clark? The Empire State? Sure, we may have been lulled into re-electing that giraffe of a governor we've got (don't get me started, I've worked hard to get rid of that guy), and we have a tendency to elect Republican mayors in the best city in the world, but we are also the state that has two senators by the name of Chuck and Hilary and a 5 to 1 registered democrat advantage in NYC with a population of 8 million. And for those of you from outside the Empire State, compare Bush/DeLay/Santorum Republicans to Pataki/Giuliani/Bloomberg Republicans and you will swear the NYS Republicans are Democrats - because a majority of NY Republicans are Republican Lite. I was on the ground during the RNC Protest, I promise you that Bush is not exactly loved.

But back to the point, the Quinnipiac Poll was a sample of 150 likely voters. Um, yeah, that's accurate. And where did they poll? They say across the state. Well, there are more Republicans in Upstate than in Downstate, but either way, 150 likely New York Voters accounts to the population of a Brooklyn apartment. They probably picked Westchester on the map, decided it was between Republicans and Democrats and thought, "Hey, that looks good!" Scientific my ass.

2. "Likely Voters" are voters who have consistently voted in the last few federal elections. So chances are, they are more party entrenched. Not exactly the swing voters everyone keeps talking about - which is important because...

3. ...Polls that only include likely voters excludes the younger voters who haven't had a chance to build up to being a "likely voter" and the immense amount of new voters that have registered between 2000 and 2004 - and are continuing to register today. Every day, butt-loads of registrations are dropped off or mailed at Boards of Elections - and you bet that they aren't taken into account in these polls. Speaking of younger voters...

4. Voters who use a cell phone as their primary and sole means of communication are not included in the polls - which accounts for a large percentage of the registered voters. How many of you have decided to not use a land line because your cell phone is cheaper, offers free nights and weekends, and free long distance? Yeah, thought so. Polls are done by calling households, not cellphones.

5. The crucial group, unmarried women, are typically busy people. I know because I am one of them. And I also primarily use a cell phone and I also work odd hours. And this was also before I started in campaign life - if you wanted to get a hold of me, you had better take a number and get in line. And I find that's true for most working, unmarried women my age - we're too busy trying to break the glass ceiling, we don't have time for other things. So while my theory here is not entirely rooted in scientific process, I think that my basic premise here is sound. So there.

6. Polls, despite any appearance to the public, are weighted. John Zogby said so last week. The polls are weighted with Republicans.

So that's my argument to why the polls suck - especially because the only poll that matters is the country-wide poll on November 2nd.

Now, Bush may talk about how Kerry is a flip-flopper, but he's the biggest hypocrite I've ever seen. He said he wasn't going to be interested in nation-building - and look at Iraq. He said he'd be a compassionate conservative - um, I don't really need to go into detail here, do I? He said he would curb government spending - um, debt much? He said he'd protect and respect individual rights - and then pushed the Patriot Act and the Constitutional Marriage Amendment, amongst other things. He says that Iraq is now a democracy - and here at home, he stifles public, agency reports, and media that are contrary to what he believes. He said he supported the Assault Weapons Ban - and sat on his thumbs when it came up a week ago. I think this one is obvious, but he said that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. He promised there would be no draft and it turns out there is legislation being worked on right now that would send all 18-25 year old men AND women to war... I could go on and on, but I'll leave you with this final thought on the matter:

As Al Sharpton said, he also didn't think he needed votes to be President.

So when people ask me whether or not Kerry is going to win or what I think about the polls, I go a little crazy. It's in our hands, folks. And given the percentage of people who agree more with Kerry on issues of choice, the economy, the misdirection and mishandling of peace in Iraq, health care, education, the environment, and civil rights - not to mention folks who are realistic enough to realize that our president should be able to read - I think we're in better shape than we think.

But either way, this race will be tight. So it is up to us - to get everyone we can registered, to make sure people go and vote on election day - and to keep fighting. Hell, I wouldn't be doing this if I didn't believe in it. So if you really want Bush out of office, then don't give up. Especially if Karl Rove has his way with the election system again. This thing will take all of us. So take the polls, throw them in the trash, use them in case you run out of toilet paper in the bathroom - because polls can say one thing. But if we all do what we can, then we'll show 'em what's up.

And that, my friends, is the pep talk that I've been dying to give.

And stop asking me that damn question!